Lumber Wars: Today's Episode - When commercial war becomes reality TV

Following President Trump's decision to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, an analyst remarked yesterday (sorry, I can't remember where I read it) that the markets had not taken the President's earlier warnings seriously and thus were taken by surprise. I decided that such a decision deserves to be taken seriously, which is why I have indulged in a detailed analysis of the impact of this measure on markets and industry, published yesterday in our magazine.

By the end of yesterday, President Trump announced on Truth Social, following talks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, that he was postponing for 30 days the implementation of the decision to impose tariffs on the two countries.

At first glance, one could interpret a 30-day postponement decision as, once again, news to be taken seriously. That now, following serious negotiations that will be condensed over the next 30 days, well-analyzed decisions will be made, with impact studies and the like. But let's be honest: does President Trump need 30 days for such analysis?

For some time now I have observed that the American people have either a strong appetite for disruption of any kind - economic, political, social - or a deep, under-served need for entertainment. President Trump, through his daily input, fills these needs of American society. When I say entertainment, I don't necessarily mean something comical, but rather a kind of elaborate reality show, with President Trump in the lead role, constantly attentive to "ratings", in a permanent process of staying in the spotlight, of surprising.

The result? Today's news about President Donald Trump is different from yesterday's. Each day brings a new "Trump story," fundamentally different from the previous one. But it raises serious questions about his long-term credibility - not just with financial markets, but with America's traditional allies. There is a real risk that they will start looking for other, more stable partners for their long-term strategies.

I confess that I find it increasingly difficult to decipher President Trump's strategy. I try to find clues by analyzing the reactions of other world leaders, but they seem equally baffled. By changing decisions from one day to the next, President Trump seems to be putting at stake the very credibility of the US as a whole - a strategic asset without which the slogan "Make America Great Again" remains an empty promise.